How It Works
SetProb uses a statistical model to calculate win probabilities for every ATP, WTA and Challenger match. Here's what you need to know.
The Probability Model
SetProb uses a multi-factor statistical model to calculate win probabilities for every ATP, WTA and Challenger match. Each player receives a probability score and the two always sum to 100%.
The model considers both players history, current form, and match conditions to determine who has the statistical edge. Probabilities are recalculated fresh for every match. No human input, no gut feel.
The model considers both players history, current form, and match conditions to determine who has the statistical edge. Probabilities are recalculated fresh for every match. No human input, no gut feel.
Confidence Tiers
Every match is assigned a confidence tier based on how strongly the model favors one player.
Strong Signal
65% and above
The model has high conviction. Multiple factors clearly favor one player.
Moderate
60% to 64%
One player is favored but the match is genuinely competitive.
Close Match
55% to 59%
A slight edge exists but either player could realistically win.
Low Confidence
50% to 54%
No clear edge detected. Excluded from accuracy stats.
Model vs Odds
Where available, SetProb shows how our model compares to Pinnacle sportsbook odds, one of the sharpest books in the world. When our model significantly disagrees with the market, it may indicate a value opportunity worth noting.
This comparison is shown for informational purposes only and is not betting advice.
This comparison is shown for informational purposes only and is not betting advice.
Accuracy Tracking
Unlike most prediction sites, SetProb publishes its full accuracy history. Every prediction is logged and resolved against the actual match result. You can see exactly how the model has performed, broken down by confidence tier, surface, tour, and round.
Confidence tiers show how strongly the model favours one player. Low Confidence picks (50 to 54%) are excluded from the main accuracy stats because at that range the match is essentially too close to call. Including them would artificially lower the numbers.
All numbers are based on real resolved predictions, not backtested data.
View Accuracy Dashboard →
Confidence tiers show how strongly the model favours one player. Low Confidence picks (50 to 54%) are excluded from the main accuracy stats because at that range the match is essentially too close to call. Including them would artificially lower the numbers.
All numbers are based on real resolved predictions, not backtested data.
⚠ Limited Data Warning
When a match card shows ⚠ Limited data on the Surface Form factor, it means one or both players have fewer than 8 matches on that surface this season.
Rather than ignoring surface form entirely, the model uses a confidence curve. The fewer matches a player has, the more their surface form score is pulled toward neutral (50/50). A player with 1 match gets almost no surface form weight, while a player with 8 or more matches gets full trust.
This means the Surface Form factor is still used, but its influence on the final probability is reduced proportionally to how much data is available.
Rather than ignoring surface form entirely, the model uses a confidence curve. The fewer matches a player has, the more their surface form score is pulled toward neutral (50/50). A player with 1 match gets almost no surface form weight, while a player with 8 or more matches gets full trust.
This means the Surface Form factor is still used, but its influence on the final probability is reduced proportionally to how much data is available.
My Picks
Use the Picks button in the top right to save matches you want to follow. Add either player from any match and share your picks list at the end of the day.
About SetProb
SetProb is an independent tennis probability tool built for tennis fans who love data. Unlike tipster sites, we show our full accuracy history so you can judge the model yourself. No subscriptions, no hidden picks. Just transparent probabilities for every match.
Disclaimer
SetProb is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial or gambling advice. Probabilities are generated by a statistical model and should not be used as the sole basis for any financial decision. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. No guarantee of accuracy is made or implied. Users assume full responsibility for any decisions made based on this information. SetProb is not affiliated with ATP, WTA, or any tennis organization.